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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED 1.14% LOWER THAN Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 1.10 per MT (2.47%) month over month to US$ 45.67 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 15 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: ROSE M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.43 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 14 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET FINISHED THE WEEK UP COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market finished the week up compared to last week. All the segments except for Cape index were up. Cape segment was ...
Friday, 12 June 15
EXPECTATIONS IN REGARDS TO THE SUMMER SEASON VARY ACROSS THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off last slightly up last week, with the BDI re-gaining the 600 points level, while the driving force behind the increas ...
Friday, 12 June 15
U.S. PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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