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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 26 June 15
INDONESIA COAL PRODUCTION FALLS BETWEEN JAN-MAY : JG
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that coal production declined to 166 million tons between January and May, a 19 percent drop ...
Friday, 26 June 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S ROSE 6.0% WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.3 million short ...
Thursday, 25 June 15
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.31% MORE COAL IN MAY 2015 COMPARED TO APRIL 2015
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.18 billio ...
Thursday, 25 June 15
CAPESIZE: PERIOD INTEREST REMAINED STRONG FOR A SECOND WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Following those depressive last six months, the BDI closed off on last Friday noting a substantial weekly increase, which pushed the ...
Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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