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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 July 15
U.S DELIVERS WEAK FIRST HALF COAL PRODUCTION; 8.8% LOWER Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short ...
Friday, 03 July 15
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE EQUALS SEVEN-YEAR LOW - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry fell during the three months to May 2015 to a level equal to the lowest rating recorded in the p ...
Thursday, 02 July 15
TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION IN MINING 2015 - IXG
Information Exchange Group’s Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015- International Summit on Mining
Press Release: The inaugural editi ...
Thursday, 02 July 15
THE PERFORMANCE OF THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT PUSHED DRY BULK MARKET TO UPWARD LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market continued its upward movement last week, with the BDI closing off on Friday (26 June) in excess of 800 points, wh ...
Wednesday, 01 July 15
Q4'15 AND Q1'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ROSE W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and down week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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