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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALL $1.12 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Tuesday, 23 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 2.32 ...
Monday, 22 June 15
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT 140K MT OF LCV COAL FOR AUGUST - SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to purchase 140K Metric Tons (MT) of LCV coal for ...
Monday, 22 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: UP MONTH OVER MONTH; DOWN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.30 (0.58%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Monday, 22 June 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: UP WEEK OVER WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.54 per MT (1.19%) month over month to US$ 45.87 per mt. The swap was ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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