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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 July 15
BEIJING HAS OFFICIALLY EXTENDED BY TWO YEARS ITS SUBSIDY PROGRAM TO SUPPORT LOCAL SHIPPING COMPANIES IN SCRAPPING THEIR OLD TONNAGE - INTERMODAL
Last week, Beijing has officially extended by two years its subsidy program to support local shipping companies in scrapping their old tonnage in w ...
Tuesday, 30 June 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 43.45 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decli ...
Monday, 29 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS UP SLIGHTLY MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.57 (1.11%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Monday, 29 June 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.49 per MT (1.08%) month over month to US$ 45.77 per mt. The swap was ...
Saturday, 27 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY EARLIER IN THE WEEK; SOFTEN INTO WEEK'S END
COALspot.com: The freight market remain steady earlier in the week, but towards end of the week BDI and BCI shows some signs of softening.
The ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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