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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 21 June 15
SPOT RATE AVERAGES FOR FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA REMAIN STRONG THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was quite firm this week compared to last week. The BDI was up 21% week on week and closed at 779 points. The cape ...
Friday, 19 June 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO LAST WEEK; CONTINUES TO BE DOWN FROM LAST YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.4 million short ...
Friday, 19 June 15
INDONESIA'S COAL-TRAFFICKING PROBLEM REQUIRES IMPARTIAL INQUIRY - JAKARTA GLOBE
Indonesia, the leading supplier to the seaborne thermal coal market, produces 420 million tons of coal per year, according to its official tally.
...
Thursday, 18 June 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: LOWEST FLEET GROWTH IN 10 YEARS MAY NOT PROVE ENOUGH AS DEMAND IS NOT KEEPING PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The demand side of things in the dry bulk market seems unable to keep pace with even the slightest fleet growth, a sign of the demise that the indu ...
Thursday, 18 June 15
THE FAR EAST HANDYSIZE, HANDYMAX, SUPRAMAX MARKET REMAINED STEADY LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (last week) noting small gains on the back of stronger performance in the Panamax segment, w ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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