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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ADVANCED MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.28 per MT (-0.61%) month over month to US$ 45.85 per mt. The swap wa ...
Monday, 06 July 15
KOREA MIDLAND POWER COMPANY LIMITED ISSUED A TENDER FOR 250K MT BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 250K Metric Tons (MT) of 5300 kcal/kg NAR coal ...
Monday, 06 July 15
COAL TRADING & RISK MANAGEMENT TRAINING COURSE
Are you ready to invest in yourself and take your trading and risk management strategy to the next level? The Coal Trading & Risk Management Tr ...
Monday, 06 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP; DECLINED D-O-D,W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.53 (1.01%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 05 July 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX WAS DOWN 18%; PANAMAX UP 9%
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft during this week. However indices closed slightly firmer end of the week on 3rd July.
The BDI was do ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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