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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 July 15
CPP MARKET : POSITIVE IN THE SHORT TERM - GEORGE VASTARDIS
Despite the traditionally quieter summer period, the clean tanker market has so far experienced healthy activity especially East of Suez. Increased ...
Thursday, 09 July 15
LACK OF FRESH BUSINESS IN THE PACIFIC LEFT CAPESIZE RATES MOVING SIDEWAYS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Intermodal ship broker says in its weekly report that, a different picture from what we saw the previous week was painted during the ...
Wednesday, 08 July 15
RIO TINTO'S MODERNISED KITIMAT SMELTER BEGINS PRODUCTION; KITIMAT BECOMING ONE OF THE LOWEST COST SMELTERS IN THE WORLD
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto is preparing its first shipments of metal from its world-class Kitimat aluminium smelter in Canada following an extensive m ...
Wednesday, 08 July 15
Q3'15 INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.14% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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