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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 13 July 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED ON A POSITIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Despite Greece crisis and turmoil in the stock market across the world , the freight market overall was firm and up in all segments t ...
Sunday, 12 July 15
SHIPYARD NOT LIABLE FOR ENGINE ROOM FIRE CAUSED BY OIL LEAKAGE - BIRCH WINDAHL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A Danish vessel owner requested a Danish shipyard to undertake repairs and maintenance works on its vessel. An agreement ...
Saturday, 11 July 15
MAJOR IRANIAN GAS EXPORTS WILL TAKE AT LEAST FIVE YEARS - FITCH
Iran has the long-term potential to become one of the world's top gas producers, thanks to its 34 trillion cubic meters (tcm) of natural gas re ...
Friday, 10 July 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS POSITIVE MOMENTUM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its positive momentum over the course of the past few days, thanks to Panamax gains. During yesterday’s session ...
Friday, 10 July 15
U.S PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 14.1 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.1 million short ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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