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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 July 15
SAS TO BUILD 108 KM ROAD FOR COAL IN JAMBI, SAYS JAKARTA POST
Jambi Governor Hasan Basri Agus said on Sunday that mining company PT Sinar Anugerah Sukses (SAS) would develop a 108-kilometer road with a width o ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
ANY FUTURE IRAN OIL DEAL WILL BOOST SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS WITH TANKER OWNERS HOPING FROM TEHRAN TO QUICKLY BOOST ITS PRODUCTION
With the Greek “Euro-drama” apparently over, at least for now, Iran’s oil deal still remains elusive, with any potential agreemen ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS MAINTAIN OVERALL NEGATIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.02 per MT (-2.23%) month over month to US$ 44.68 per mt. The swap ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.47 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SOAR 23 PER CENT TO 24.08 MILLION TONNES AT 12 MAJOR INDIAN PORTS
Import of thermal coal jumped 23 per cent to 24.08 million tonnes at 12 major ports in the first quarter of the fiscal, even as the government cont ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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