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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FLAT TREND LINE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was decli ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
DRY BULK: MARKETS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SEVERELY CHALLENGED - CLARKSONS
The dry bulk markets have continued to be severely challenged with freight rates falling during the period to below operating expense. The Baltic D ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
1Q'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FALLS BELOW $54 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
2Q' 16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $43 PER MT W/E 14 AUGUST
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.08 per MT (-2.46%) month over month to US$ 42.82 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 17 August 15
TROUBLED DRY BULK MARKET FACES TURMOIL AS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS REMAIN WEAK - BIMCO
The demand for coal in China continues to diminish. So much in fact that India is expected to succeed China as the world’s largest imp ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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