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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 August 15
CONDITIONS AND COMPLEXITIES IN A TRIPARTITE AGREEMENT: BE SPECIFIC! - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A tripartite agreement reached between the Owners, the Shippers and the Receivers provided that demurrage be paid to the ...
Thursday, 13 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES KEPT RALLYING LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Strong Capesize performance kept supporting the Dry Bulk market last week, which noted another positive weekly closing, while rates f ...
Thursday, 13 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FALLING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET: WITHOUT A DOUBT REACHED HEALTHIER LEVEL
A few weeks before the end of the summer season, the BDI is hovering around 1,200 points, providing some much needed optimism to all Dry Bulk marke ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
REGULATION CURBS POWER OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN MINING SECTOR IN INDONESIA - FLORENCE G. SANTOSO
The Indonesian Government appears to be getting serious about stripping Regents of the authority to issue mining licenses. The Government took the ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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