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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
INDONESIA MINERS' NPLS TO RISE FURTHER, BANK RISKS BUILD - FITCH
The NPLs of Indonesian mine and mine services companies are likely to rise further in the short term, says Fitch Ratings, after reaching multi-year ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
MINER'S EARNINGS DROP ON FALLING COAL PRICES; Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.23 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 24 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HIT FRESH LOW, DIPPING BELOW $42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 2.20 per MT (-5.01%) month over month to US$ 41.70 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 24 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 48.65 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.89 (3.74%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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