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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 August 15
IS CHINA'S STEEL EXPORTS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FREIGHT MARKET? - BIMCO
No, it’s not enough, you will need lower Chinese iron ore production too in order to keep growing imports of iron ore into China that will su ...
Sunday, 23 August 15
SHIPPING FREIGHT RATES FALL SHARPLY ON EXCESS SUPPLY AND LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: The BDI continued to soften and was down 5.78 pct and falls back below 1000 points this week.
The cape Index lost 17.25 per cent ...
Friday, 21 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME FALLS 8.7% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.3 million shor ...
Friday, 21 August 15
GLOBALCOAL TO LAUNCH ONLINE TRADING OF PHYSICAL MET COAL ON 13 OCTOBER
On 13 October 2015, globalCOAL will launch an online platform for the physical procurement and trade of high quality hard coking coal delivered FOB ...
Thursday, 20 August 15
COAL PRICES FALL TO 12-YEAR LOWS AS CHINA, INDIA JOIN DEMAND SLOWDOWN - REUTERS
Coal futures have fallen to 12-year lows, hit by soaring production and a slowdown in global buying, including from India and China which until rec ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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