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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 August 15
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL REFERENCE PRICE HITS RECORD LOW AGAIN!
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.14 per MT fo ...
Monday, 17 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 40 (1.05%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Sunday, 16 August 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI softened 12.08 per cent to 1055 points this week due to weakening of cape index which was fell 25 per cent week over week to ...
Friday, 14 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING NO MOVEMENT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Friday, 14 August 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.9 PER CENT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.2 million shor ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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