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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of ...
Friday, 28 August 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING AUGUST 22 ROSE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.5 million shor ...
Friday, 28 August 15
BANPU STRENGTHENS GROWTH PLAN
Coal Business: Asia-Pacific Synergies Increase Competitiveness for Premium Export Market.
Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) strengthens its ...
Thursday, 27 August 15
RATES FOR CAPES REMAINED ON A FREE FALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Keeping everyone on their toes with the volatility seen in August, the Dry Bulk market undoubtedly remains a steady provider of chall ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of th ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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