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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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