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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 September 15
GOVERNORS WILL HAVE THE POWER TO REVOKE MINERS' PERMITS: ENERGY MINISTRY - JG
Starting Oct. 1, Indonesia's governors will lawfully become "executors" in revoking the licenses of miners that fail to secure a &quo ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE HBA METHODOLOGY
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) in process to revise Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) and expected to complete b ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET AND THE CHINESE ECONOMY CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TRADING - INTERMODAL
The last week of the summer season saw the BDI dipping further on the back of another significant drop in rates for Capes, which brought the market ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.46 MMT OF COAL IN JULY; UP 0.66 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.224 billi ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
In the beginning of the summer period SnP activity was firm with numerous buyers, coming mainly from Greece and the Far East, inspecting ships and ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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