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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
AUTOMATION AND TECHNOLOGY IS CERTAINLY PART OF THE SOLUTION FOR IMPROVING PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY TO MAKE THE MINE OPERATIONS MORE PROFITABLE, HOWEVER............ - LUKE JALSEVAC
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Luke Jalsevac, Director, Busines ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
THE CAPE SIZE INDEX ROSE 10.83 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI, the Baltic exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, declined o ...
Saturday, 05 September 15
DRY BULK MARKET MAY SUFFER NOW, BUT IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY THANKS TO A LIMITED FUTURE FLEET GROWTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The slow increase of dry bulk tonnage growth this year could turn into a solid indicator of the market’s future prospects. According to a rec ...
Friday, 04 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE W/E AUGUST 29, UP SLIGHTLY; FALL 4.5 PERCENT Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.7 million shor ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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