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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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