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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Monday, 16 March 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS: DECLINED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.48 per MT (-4.77%) month over month and US$ 0.93 (-1.84%) we ...
Monday, 16 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.74% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.17 (-3.74%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1 ...
Sunday, 15 March 15
BDI DECLINED LESSER THAN 1% WEEK OVER WEEK; INDO-INDIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The most of indices, including bulk dry index were falling this week. The BDI has been down by just 0.53 points and closing at 562 po ...
Saturday, 14 March 15
CAPESIZE DRY BULKERS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN $3,000 AND $9,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO
BIMCO issued its latest short-term estimates for the dry bulk market. For March/May: BIMCO assesses that the Capesize time charter (T/C) average ra ...
Friday, 13 March 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.3% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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