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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Tuesday, 17 March 15
GAS TO CHALLENGE COAL IN THE ASIAN POWER GENERATION MIX - WOOD MACKENZIE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Wood Mackenzie says that coal is facing increasing competition from gas in the power sector. Coal has dominated as the fu ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
RIO TINTO PAID US$ 7.1 BILLION IN TAXES IN 2014
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has published its latest Taxes paid report, detailing the US$7.1 billion in taxes paid by the company around the world in 2 ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
NEARLY 17% OF US COAL PRODUCTION UNECONOMIC AT CURRENT MARKET PRICING - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: Close to 17% of forecast 2015 US coal production is at risk of idling or closure, totalling 162 million short tons (Mst), as these mi ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
Q3' SA COAL SWAP CLOSED $57.30 PMT W/E 13 MARCH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and gained week on week.
The Q2 swap has fe ...
Monday, 16 March 15
MAKING THE WORLD GO ROUND - SEABORNE TRADE! - CLARKSONS
Money, or even love if you prefer, are claimed to make the world go round. For the shipping world, however, it’s trade that sets things spinn ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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