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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Thursday, 19 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK SOAR 7.69% IN MARCH....!!!
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised up Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 67.76 per MT in March ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
AVERAGE RATE FOR CAPES MOVED TO BELOW $ 4K/DAY LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The even heavier losses noted in the Capesize segment last week, denied the Dry Bulk market a third weekly positive, while the smalle ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
PARKING THE CAPES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It is no secret that recent times have been anything but kind towards shipping, and no sector has suffered more lately than the dry bulk one. While ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
CHINA-OWNED SHIPS: A RAPID RISE TO BECOME ONE OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST FLEETS - RICHARD SCOTT
Ships operated by owners based in China have become increasingly prominent on the world’s sea routes. China-owned container ships, bulk carri ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
Q2 INDONESIAN COAL SWAP DROP 1.45% M-O-M; GAIN 0.63% W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and gained week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.70 (1.45%) ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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