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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Friday, 13 March 15
ADARO RECORDED A 7% INCREASE IN EBITDA OF $877 MILLION IN 2014
“Coal market continues to be difficult and challenging” – Adaro Energy
The world’s Top 5 thermal coal exporter, ...
Thursday, 12 March 15
CAPESIZE : ACTIVITY IS LOW; PANAMAX: BIT MORE ACTIVITY; HANDY: A FIRMING WEEK
Handy
It has been a firming week in both hemispheres this week and especially in the Pacific, says Fearnleys AS in its week's week report.
...
Thursday, 12 March 15
COAL MINERS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE AS GLUT CONTINUES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia’s major coal miners reported a significant drop in their earnings last year as the sharp drop in the global demand, mainly from Chi ...
Thursday, 12 March 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DROP TO $47.33 A TON IN THE WEEK ENDED MAR.6
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.37 (0.78%) month ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DROP $ 3.65 - 4.0/T W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has fell US$ ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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