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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED OFF ON THE GREEN FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on the green for a second week in a row, while the performance of Capesizes hindered a more substantia ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET: ALL IS NOT LOST FOR A RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The low cost of commodities across the board could trigger an increase of trade among many countries, which in turn could lead to a recovery of the ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANIES TO ADD MORE THAN 20 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2015; 16 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO RETIRE IN 2015
COALspot.com: In 2015, electric generating companies in U.S. expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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