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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Monday, 23 March 15
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE: GROWTH +5% - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Sunday, 22 March 15
DRY BULK RATES CONTINUED TO RISE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady this week as all the segments increased after many weeks of weak trend.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ...
Friday, 20 March 15
HARD COAL MARKET 2014: DESPITE THE ENERGY TURNAROUND, HARD COAL IMPORTS TO GERMANY RISE BY MORE THAN 6% (PART 1)
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Friday, 20 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SHOWS 5.9% INCREASE WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 19 March 15
HANDY: INDO COAL CARGOS DESTINED FOR INDIA BEING FIXED IN REGION OF $ 7-8K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Handy and Supra market has had a week with mixed signals. Although we see more activity in both hemispheres the rates are only up about ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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