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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Tuesday, 24 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q2 CLOSED $ 1.87 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has dropped U ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
ARGUS MEDITERRANEAN SOLID FUELS 2015 CONFERENCE | 2-3 JUNE, ISTANBUL
Press Release: Argus Media is proud to announce Argus Mediterranean Solid Fuels, which will be held in Istanbul,on 2-3February.
Argus produces ...
Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, ...
Monday, 23 March 15
Q4' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINED 6.79% M-O-M; 2.55% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.42 per MT (-6.33%) month over month and US$ 1.37 (-2.77%) we ...
Monday, 23 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: Q3 DELIVERY HAS FALLEN 7.93% MONTH-ON-MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.09 (-7.06%) per MT month over month and US$ 2.00 (-3 ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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