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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Wednesday, 25 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT: TANKER CHARTERING - KATERINA RESTIS
The 1st of January 2015, as broadly reported, denoted the beginning date of new and progressive emission regulations for vessels operating within t ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
AUSTRALIA SET TO ONCE AGAIN BE THE WORLD'S LARGEST COAL EXPORTER - COAL, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Greg Evans, Executive Director - Coal, Minerals Council of Australia
Media Release: The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly published by the ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
AUSTRALIA UPSTREAM ENERGY FIRMS FACE RISING OIL PRICE EXPOSURE - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says the Australian oil and gas companies involved in exploration and production face higher exposure to oil price-linked revenues, w ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
2014 : UK COAL IMPORTS DECLINED 17%; GERMANY COAL IMPORTS UP 6%
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
A WEAK WEEK FOR FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 2.48 (5.12%) month ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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