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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Tuesday, 14 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $44
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.25 (4.77%) ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.28 PMT; DECLINED 7.50% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.67 per MT (-7.50%) month over month and US$ 0.39 week on wee ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q4 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 50.97
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (-8.05%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0 ...
Sunday, 12 April 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady, however the BDI was declined slightly week over week.
BDI dropped 1.36 pct and closed at 580 poin ...
Friday, 10 April 15
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 4.7% W-O-W : EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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