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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Tuesday, 14 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $44
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.25 (4.77%) ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.28 PMT; DECLINED 7.50% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.67 per MT (-7.50%) month over month and US$ 0.39 week on wee ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q4 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 50.97
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (-8.05%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0 ...
Sunday, 12 April 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady, however the BDI was declined slightly week over week.
BDI dropped 1.36 pct and closed at 580 poin ...
Friday, 10 April 15
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 4.7% W-O-W : EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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