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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Tuesday, 07 April 15
Q3 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 55.96 PMT; DOWN 8.40% M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has declined U ...
Monday, 06 April 15
INDONESIA'S HBA FIXED AT US$ 64.48 PMT FOR APRIL DELIVERY; DOWN 4.84% M-M
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 64.48 per MT in Apr ...
Monday, 06 April 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 12% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 6.23 per MT (-12%) month over month and US$ 0.86 (-1.85%) week ...
Monday, 06 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.96 (-10.37%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.98 (- ...
Sunday, 05 April 15
FREIGHT RATES UNDER PRESSURE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Indices fell on all segments and the market seemed to soften this week.
The BDI was almost lost 1.34% week over week and clo ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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