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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Thursday, 16 April 15
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS RISE BY 33 PC TO 240 MT IN FY'15 - PTI
India’s coal imports in the just concluded FY 2015 increased by 33 per cent to about 240 million tonnes.
“Coal import have gone up ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
CAPESIZE: THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND SIDE ARE NOW SUFFERING HEAVILY - FEARNLEYS
Handy
It seems to be some standoff between owners and charterers in both hemispheres this week. Owners are raising their rates while charterers a ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
Q3 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 55.67 PMT
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month.
The Q2 swap has declined US$ 1.90 (3.17%) m ...
Wednesday, 15 April 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.63 MMT OF COAL IN MARCH; UP 4.41% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.227 billi ...
Tuesday, 14 April 15
COAL OUTPUT FALLS AS PRICES CONTINUE TO LAG - JP
Coal output dropped by 21 percent in the first three months of the year as low prices for the commodity forced mining companies to reduce activitie ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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