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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Thursday, 16 April 15
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS RISE BY 33 PC TO 240 MT IN FY'15 - PTI
India’s coal imports in the just concluded FY 2015 increased by 33 per cent to about 240 million tonnes.
“Coal import have gone up ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
CAPESIZE: THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND SIDE ARE NOW SUFFERING HEAVILY - FEARNLEYS
Handy
It seems to be some standoff between owners and charterers in both hemispheres this week. Owners are raising their rates while charterers a ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
Q3 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 55.67 PMT
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month.
The Q2 swap has declined US$ 1.90 (3.17%) m ...
Wednesday, 15 April 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.63 MMT OF COAL IN MARCH; UP 4.41% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.227 billi ...
Tuesday, 14 April 15
COAL OUTPUT FALLS AS PRICES CONTINUE TO LAG - JP
Coal output dropped by 21 percent in the first three months of the year as low prices for the commodity forced mining companies to reduce activitie ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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