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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Monday, 20 April 15
Q4' 2015 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 50.28 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.03 (-7.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.05 (-0 ...
Sunday, 19 April 15
THE OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET SHOWED STEADY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady this week. The BDI was up 2.93% to 597 points week over week. The cape index was also increased ...
Friday, 17 April 15
IHS ENERGY EUROPEAN COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Attend the IHS Energy European Coal Outlook Conference 19-20 May in Nice, France and learn about timely concerns in today’s coal industry.
...
Friday, 17 April 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.0 million short ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overa ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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