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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Monday, 20 April 15
Q4' 2015 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 50.28 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.03 (-7.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.05 (-0 ...
Sunday, 19 April 15
THE OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET SHOWED STEADY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady this week. The BDI was up 2.93% to 597 points week over week. The cape index was also increased ...
Friday, 17 April 15
IHS ENERGY EUROPEAN COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Attend the IHS Energy European Coal Outlook Conference 19-20 May in Nice, France and learn about timely concerns in today’s coal industry.
...
Friday, 17 April 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.0 million short ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overa ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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