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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Monday, 20 April 15
Q4' 2015 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 50.28 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.03 (-7.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.05 (-0 ...
Sunday, 19 April 15
THE OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET SHOWED STEADY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady this week. The BDI was up 2.93% to 597 points week over week. The cape index was also increased ...
Friday, 17 April 15
IHS ENERGY EUROPEAN COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Attend the IHS Energy European Coal Outlook Conference 19-20 May in Nice, France and learn about timely concerns in today’s coal industry.
...
Friday, 17 April 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.0 million short ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overa ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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