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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Friday, 10 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET'S DOWNFALL ALSO OFFER INVESTMENT BARGAINS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk market rates have fallen to historical lows over the past few weeks, with no clear path of recovery, at least in the near term. As such, m ...
Thursday, 09 April 15
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE STILL DISAPPOINTING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy market had a stronger sentiment before the Easter holidays, but have as the bigger panamaxes seen a softening tendency this week. ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET SEEMS UNABLE TO CATCH A BREAK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seems unable to catch a break these days.
According to Intermodal, following the market stabilization that p ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
CHINA BURNS HALF OF THE WORLD'S COAL - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
Intermodal Weekly Market Update
China is the world's largest consumer of coal, using more coal each year than the United States, the Europ ...
Tuesday, 07 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP KEEPS DROPPING; DROPPED 2% W-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.44 (5.14%) ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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