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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD c ...
Tuesday, 21 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-O-W; DECLINED M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 gained week over week and declined month on month.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 1.75 ( ...
Tuesday, 21 April 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP MOVE UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased slightly month over month.
The Q2 swap has increased US$ 0.2 ...
Monday, 20 April 15
BUKIT ASAM TAKES OVER STAKE IN JV FROM RAJAWALI - JP
State-owned coal miner PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) announced Friday that it had taken over almost the entire stake in a joint venture (JV) that it created ...
Monday, 20 April 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.54 per MT (-7.21%) month over month and gained US$ 0.30 week ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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