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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Friday, 24 April 15
CHINA IRON ORE MINE CLOSURES TO SLOW ON GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings expects fewer Chinese iron ore mine closures in 2015 as the government takes steps to support the industry, which has been struggling ...
Friday, 24 April 15
IS INDIA THE 'NEW CHINA' WHEN IT COMES TO THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been feeling the “heat” of China’s slowdown and together with the industry’s own failings, with ove ...
Friday, 24 April 15
GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION OUTSIDE OF CHINA CONTINUES TO FARE VERY POORLY - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Data released this week showed that global crude steel production totaled approximately 138.05 million tons in March.
Wha ...
Friday, 24 April 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE FALLS 5.7% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.0 million short ...
Wednesday, 22 April 15
PANAMAX : ATLANTIC HOLDING ON TO THE GAINS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK; PACIFIC BUSINESS SLID QUIETLY
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to close off the week on a positive note last Friday, while as opposed to what we have been used to, it w ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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