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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Tuesday, 28 April 15
Q2' 15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.18% HIGHER FROM MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased month over month and slightly week over week.
The Q2 swap ha ...
Monday, 27 April 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL BELOW ONE BILLION SHORT TONS IN 2013 - EIA
COALspot.com: For the first time in two decades, U.S. coal production fell below one billion short tons to 984.8 million short tons in 2013 from 1, ...
Monday, 27 April 15
Q3' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 3.69% LOWER THAN Q2' 2015 PRICE OF $46.36
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.19 per MT (0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.78 week on week. ...
Monday, 27 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLOWLY IMPROVED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.74 (-1.41%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.43 ...
Sunday, 26 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEPT IMPROVING THIS WEEK; CAPES AND PANAMAXES SHOW A SLIGHT PICKUP IN RATES
COALspot.com: The freight market was stable this week as BDI closed at 600 points after improving 0.50 percent week over week.
The cape ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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