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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE EXPORTS: A DANGEROUS RACE? - CLARKSONS
The surge in iron ore exports in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in iron ore spot prices, which dipped to a ten year low of bel ...
Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE PLAYS EXPECTED TO SHAPE UP MAY DRY BULK SCHEDULE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Market plays in the iron ore commodities’ markets, are expected to carve out the future demand for the shipping industry as well, said Allied ...
Wednesday, 29 April 15
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The figures of China’s slowing down imports of coking coal for the first quarter of the year are coming to confirm what everybody was expecti ...
Wednesday, 29 April 15
SHIPBUILDERS START OFFERING DISCOUNTS FOR DRY BULK NEWBUILDINGS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It took a while, but now it appears that some shipbuilders are beginning to adjust their price lists to the new grim reality of the dry bulk market ...
Tuesday, 28 April 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED M-O-M; INCREASED W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 gained week over week but declined month on month.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 0.15 ( ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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