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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Tuesday, 05 May 15
OVERSUPPLY PUTTING INDONESIAN COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 1 ...
Tuesday, 05 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS MOVE NORTH THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Monday, 04 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 PRICES SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 1.38 per MT (3.12%) month over month and US$ 0.93 week on week. ...
Monday, 04 May 15
Q1' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGH THAN 2015 DERIVATIVES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.15 (-0.29%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.07 ...
Sunday, 03 May 15
DRY BULK INDICES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to weak for the week starting from 27 April. The BDI was fell around 2.17% closed at 580 points.
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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