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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 08 October 14
IS THERE ANY BRIGHT SIDE ON THE DRY BULK SEGMENT? - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
In the movie “Life Of Brian”, a character on a nearby cross was singing the famous “Always look on the bright side of life” ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT 525K MT OF LOW ASH AND EXTRA LOW SULFUR SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 525,000 metric tons of low ash and extra low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS A FLAT TO WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps November 2014 delivery flat week on week and gained US$ 0.10 (-0.20%) per mt day on day. The swap also lost US$ ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
THE RIO TINTO CONFIRMS THAT NO DISCUSSIONS ARE TAKING PLACE WITH GLENCORE
COALspot.com: The board of Rio Tinto notes the recent press speculation regarding a possible combination of Rio Tinto and Glencore.The Rio Tinto bo ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP HEADED SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 1.10 (-1.64%) month over month and US$ 0.25 (-0.38%)  ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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