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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 06 October 14
' COAL-BY-WIRE' FROM SUMATRA TO JAVA - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal from the island of Sumatra accounts for most of Indonesia’s low-grade lignite, a low-quality coal that receives a poor price in internat ...
Monday, 06 October 14
THE IRON ORE SHIPPING BUSINESS IS FACING SOME ROUGH SEAS - EAST ASIA FORUM
The impact of Chinese demand on global iron ore prices is well known. A less acknowledged consequence of China’s emergence is the transformat ...
Sunday, 05 October 14
BALTIC DRY INDEX SLIPS 1.14%; BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX GAINED 9.91% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down by 1.14 pct and closed at 1037 points this Friday.
The Cape index was down significantly week on week or lost 5 ...
Friday, 03 October 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.8% TO 19.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
Thursday, 02 October 14
CAPESIZE - DULL AND WITHOUT MUCH DIRECTION AS IRON ORE AND COAL VOLUMES FAIL TO LIVE UP EXPECTATIONS
Handy
After the recent weeks´ rate increase in the Atlantic we see Panamaxes snapping up handymax and Supra cargoes at much lower levels, p ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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