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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 13 October 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR DELIVERY Q4' 2014 GAINED WEEK ON WEEK AND DAY ON DAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 gained week on week and day on day.
The swap lost US$ 0.13 (-0.25%) month on mon ...
Monday, 13 October 14
Q1' 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 0.31 PMT HIGHER THAN Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.66 (-1.00%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (-0.61%) ...
Sunday, 12 October 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened. The BDI down 7.13 pct week on week and closed below 1000 points at 963 points.
The Cape ind ...
Saturday, 11 October 14
COAL PRODUCTION RISES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS GOVT LIMITS MINING OPERATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production rose by only 4 percent in the first nine months of this year, a relatively low increase compared to previous years, as t ...
Friday, 10 October 14
INDONESIA TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM COAL INDUSTRY - JP
The government is planning to launch a program to develop the downstream coal industry to increase the commodity’s added value, an official h ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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