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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 01 October 14
ASIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON OVERSUPPLY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The thermal coal market in Asia will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months, in spite of on-going rationalisation of production, a ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
PANAMAXES: DEFENSIVE, STRUGGLING TO KEEP ANY FURTHER DECREASES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seemed unable to shake off the trend of the week prior and the BDI remained on a downward slope for the bigger pa ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the down ...
Tuesday, 30 September 14
COALVIEW TO PARTICIPATE AT MET COKE WORLD SUMMIT 2014 IN CHICAGO
COALspot.com: Coalview Ltd., LLC(“Coalview”) America's leading fully integrated coal technology and fine coal recovery company prov ...
Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME FALL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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