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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 10 October 14
U.S. PRODUCED 83.2 MMST OF COAL IN SEPTEMBER, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 09 October 14
CAPESIZE MARKET HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW WEAKNESS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We mentioned last week that after several weeks of rate increase for the Supras, the bigger Panamaxes started to snap up better paying Supr ...
Thursday, 09 October 14
SHIPPING REMAINS CHALLENGED AS GLOBAL GROWTH DISAPPOINTS - BIMCO
The global shipping industry finds no grace from much stronger economic activity going forward, as the global recovery remains fragile and uneven. ...
Wednesday, 08 October 14
CAPES RATE FOR THE W. AUSTRALIA TO CHINA VOYAGE MOVED TO BELOW $8/MT - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, with rates for Capes remaining on the red while those for Panamaxes managed to outperform th ...
Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting inv ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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