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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 15 October 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.96 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN SEPTEMBER; UP 5.72%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,227.7 wor ...
Tuesday, 14 October 14
KING COAL UNDER ATTACK? - EVA TZIMA
With the last quarter of the year being well underway and with no strong signs that the Dry Bulk market could be ready for a big positive reversal, ...
Tuesday, 14 October 14
THE NEW CHINESE TRANSPORTATION TAX LAW: WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR GREEK SHIPPING? - DELOITTE
China has recently promulgated a new law which imposes tax on profits from freights of inbound routes. The objective of the new tax law titled &ldq ...
Monday, 13 October 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORT TARIFFS YET ANOTHER BLOW TO AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS - TIM BUCKLEY
COALspot.com: China’s unexpected move to reintroduce thermal coal import tariffs of 6% will have a materially negative impact on the viabilit ...
Monday, 13 October 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 54.92, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2014 decreased US$ 0.80 (-1.46%) month over month and US$ 0.52 (-0.95%) week over ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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