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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 28 October 14
SGX'S FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q1' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 68.07 ON 24 OCT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.65 (-0.96%) month over month and increased US$ 1.79 (+2. ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.68% LOWER MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week.
The swap has lost US ...
Monday, 27 October 14
GOVT PROMISES TO EASE LICENSING PROCEDURES IN MINING SECTOR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to simplify the complicated licensing procedures i ...
Monday, 27 October 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.10 LESSER THAN Q4' 14 CLOSING OF $ 53.27 PMT
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.43 (-2.61%) month over month and increased US$ 0.05 (+0.09% ...
Monday, 27 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS PERFORMED POSITIVE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.68 (-2.55%) month over month and increased US$ 0.87 (+1.3 ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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