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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 26 October 14
CAPE'S STRONG PERFORMANCE PUSHES BDI INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 26.27 pct and closed at 1192 points week and week. The Cape size performance has pushed up BDI and Cape size index ...
Friday, 24 October 14
WEEKLY U.S COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7% FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 18
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 23 October 14
THE BEARS, HOWEVER, STILL CRY; FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? - FEARNLEYS
Handy
"We experience a typical oversupply of ships in the Atlantic which causing rates to slide. In the USG it is just enough cargoes to kee ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
CAPESIZE MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed on the red for yet another week although following Friday sentiment has started to improve on the back of ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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