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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 04 November 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.09 (-1.99%) month over month and increased US$ 0.31 (+0.58% ...
Monday, 03 November 14
ADARO PRODUCED 41.90MT OF COAL FOR FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2014
COALspot.com: Adaro’s coal production in the third quarter reached 14.03 Mt, a 2% increase compared to the same period of last year. Accordin ...
Monday, 03 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 2014 DELIVERY LOST 2.80% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery has decreased US$ 1.86 (-2.80%) month over month and increased US$ 0.37 ( ...
Monday, 03 November 14
INDONESIAN'S COAL EXPORTS JUMP IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
Sunday, 02 November 14
CAPE INDEX WAS UP 46.65% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI and Cape index continued the strong upward trend this week. The BDI was up 19.80 pct and Cape index was up by 46.65 per ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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