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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 21 October 14
INDIA'S DIESEL DEREGULATION POSITIVE FOR OIL COMPANIES - FITCH
The Indian government's 18 October decision to deregulate diesel prices will have a positive effect on the national oil marketing companies tha ...
Tuesday, 21 October 14
LOW DEMAND PUTTING COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost on day, week and month.
The swap has lost US$ 1.57 (-3.04%) month on month ...
Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix ...
Monday, 20 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FAILED TO PERFORM POSITIVE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 3.04 (-4.57%) month over month and US$ 1.75 (-2.68%) week o ...
Sunday, 19 October 14
LOW DEMAND PUSHES DOWN COAL FREIGHT RATES; VOLATILITY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened including BDI except for Panamax index.
The BDI was down by1.70 pct and clsoed at 944 points ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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