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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 31 October 14
BUKIT ASAM'S NET PROFIT ROSE 27.42% FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY - SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: Publicly listed coal miner Bukit Asam reported solid profits in the first nine months of 2014 year.
Coal miner Bukit Asam manage ...
Friday, 31 October 14
U.S PRODUCED AROUND 19.3 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 30 October 14
COAL & GRAINS SUPPORT PANAMAX AND IRON ORE SUPPORTS CAPES
Handy
The Atlantic market has been flat this week. Rates are up about US$ 200 from last week on the TA´s, but the volumes are about the sam ...
Thursday, 30 October 14
DOES A LOU ARBITRATION AGREEMENT FOR THE UNDERLYING CARGO CLAIM COMPLETELY REPLACE THE BILL OF LADING ARBITRATION CLAUSE? - INCE &CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the context of cargo claims brought under four bills of lading, the Commercial Court has recently considered whether a ...
Wednesday, 29 October 14
GOOD REASON WHY Q4 CAPESIZE OUTLOOK WAS SO BULLISH AT START OF THE YEAR - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: There was good reason why so many analysts' capesize outlook for Q4 was so very strong at the start of this year. Brazilian ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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