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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 07 November 14
U.S. PRODUCED 85.60 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER, UP 2.88% M-O-M
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 06 November 14
THE ATLANTIC HAS REMAINED STRONG WITH A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF NEW CARGOES
Handy
This week has continued its slow trend in both hemispheres and even though rates are a bit up w-o-w it is not a clear sign for any improvem ...
Wednesday, 05 November 14
CAPESIZE SEGMENT ENJOYED FIRMING RATES ACROSS BOTH BASINS
Following a fantastic week in terms of rate performance for Capes, the Dry Bulk market managed to note another positive weekly closing, which stron ...
Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compar ...
Tuesday, 04 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR 2015 DELIVERIES SHOW A WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week, the trend was same as las ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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